Australia vs Egypt: Result, Stats & Predictions (World Cup 2026)
Egypt beat Australia 4-2 on penalties after a 1-1 draw, with Salah's Panenka sealing Egypt's first World Cup knockout win.
3 July 2026
Result
Egypt advanced to the World Cup Round of 16 with a 4-2 penalty shootout win over Australia at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, after a 1-1 draw through 120 minutes. Emam Ashour headed Egypt in front early on, and a Mohamed Hany own goal levelled the score before half-time. In the shootout, Harry Souttar and Lucas Herrington both missed from the spot, while Mohamed Salah settled matters with a composed Panenka down the middle. Egypt face Argentina next.
What it means for Last Man Standing pools
Australia was backed by a sizable portion of pool players still alive going into the knockouts — they had beaten France and qualified from a tough group. Picking them here was not an unreasonable call. The result came down to a shootout, which means anyone who backed the Socceroos had 90 minutes of false hope before being eliminated. Penalty heartbreak is the cruelest way to exit a pool, and there will have been quite a few of those last night.
Pre-match forecasts
Egypt were narrow favourites heading in. According to Opta's pre-match model, Egypt won 39.7% of simulations, with a draw after 90 minutes at 31.9% and Australia at 28.4%. Most public expectation pointed to Egypt shading it, though the margin was slim enough that backing Australia was defensible. The result — a draw followed by a shootout Egypt controlled — landed precisely where the numbers said it might. Australia's goalkeeper substitution at full-time, bringing on Mat Ryan specifically for penalties, failed to shift the outcome.
Standout stats
Mohamed Salah finished the match with eight touches inside the penalty box — more than any other player on the pitch, per match data — and had created 16 chances across the tournament, joint-most of any player at the 2026 World Cup alongside Belgium's Leandro Trossard. Egypt's penalty win was historic on a continental level: they became only the second African nation to win a World Cup penalty shootout, after Morocco did it twice in 2022 and earlier in this tournament. For context, Egypt are seven-time Africa Cup of Nations winners, yet this was only their second victory in World Cup knockout football — a statistical footnote that puts the magnitude of the result in perspective.
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