Brazil vs Japan, World Cup 2026 Round of 32: LMS Pick Guide
Brazil face Japan in the World Cup Round of 32 today. Here's what LMS pool players need to know before making their pick.
29 June 2026
Brazil vs Japan is the match that has most LMS pool players reaching for the obvious pick — and in this case, the obvious pick is probably correct.
Brazil enter as heavy favourites. Five World Cup titles, Vinícius Jr in form throughout the group stage, and a squad depth that no other team in this tournament can match. Japan qualified from a competitive group but are without Takefusa Kubo, their most dangerous attacking player, through injury.
Why Brazil are the right pick
In Last Man Standing pools, the art is not picking the best team — it is picking the safe win. Brazil vs Japan in Houston is about as close to a "safe win" as the Round of 32 offers this week. The Seleção have not lost to Japan in a competitive fixture, and Japan face them without their key creative outlet.
Japan are a well-organised, disciplined side. They will sit compact and make Brazil work for it. That might mean a tense first half and a late breakthrough, or it might mean Brazil score early and coast. Either way, backing Japan here in an LMS pool requires a level of contrarian courage that rarely pays off.
If you have not used Brazil yet, use them now.
The case for saving Brazil
The counterargument: if you back Brazil in the Round of 32, you cannot back them in the last 16, quarter-final, semi-final, or final. Brazil are one of the safest picks available at every stage. Spending them against Japan — who are undermanned and likely to set up defensively — might be giving up too much for too little.
The alternative pools strategy: use a secondary safe pick today (Argentina, Spain, Germany, Netherlands are all in action this round if available to you), and save Brazil for the quarter-finals when the opposition gets genuinely dangerous.
Japan's World Cup story
Japan's run to the Round of 32 came through a group containing Sweden and Tunisia. They drew 1-1 with Sweden, which was enough. Kubo's absence is a serious blow — he is the player most likely to create something from nothing, and Japan without him rely heavily on pressing and set pieces. Against Brazil's backline, that may not be enough.
That said, Japan have form for beating supposedly superior European sides in recent tournaments. Brazil are not European, but the shock result is always lurking.
Kick-off and where to watch
Brazil vs Japan kicks off at 1pm ET / 6pm BST from NRG Stadium in Houston.
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