Colombia vs DR Congo: Result, Stats & Predictions (World Cup 2026)

Result

Colombia edged past DR Congo 1-0 in Group K at Guadalajara on June 23, booking their place in the knockout stage with a goal that felt overdue. Daniel Muñoz broke the deadlock in the 76th minute, his shot from inside the area taking a deflection off a defender and wrong-footing the goalkeeper. Juan Fernando Quintero took the assist. Colombia had the better of the match throughout but were repeatedly frustrated by DR Congo goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi, whose eight saves kept the scoreline tight until the final quarter. Colombia's six points from two games puts them top of the group heading into matchday three.

What It Means for Last Man Standing Pools

Colombia were a quietly popular LMS pick — not a glamour choice, but a side with genuine quality who were expected to handle a beatable opponent. The late timing of the goal (76th minute) will have been nerve-wracking for pool players watching on, but the result held. More useful for LMS purposes is what this game exposed: DR Congo, despite a gallant effort, were unable to threaten Colombia in any meaningful way. Anyone who backed Colombia kept their place in the pool. The result also clears Colombia's path — with qualification secured, they enter matchday three with a comfortable position to rotate or rest key players, which pool players should factor in when considering Colombia for future rounds.

Pre-Match Forecasts

Colombia entered as firm favourites, with pre-match models giving them a win probability in the region of 70-75%. DR Congo had impressed in defeat against Portugal in matchday one but were priced at around 10-12% to win here. The draw was seen as the second most likely outcome at roughly 18-20%. Colombia ultimately won as expected, though the margin of dominance on the pitch far outstripped the 1-0 scoreline, with DR Congo's goalkeeper forcing the outcome to look closer than the underlying data suggested.

Standout Stats

Colombia had 64% possession and outshot DR Congo 20 to 8, with a shots-on-target advantage of 9 to 1, per tournament tracking data. Their expected goals figure of 1.03 against DR Congo's 0.39 tells the story of a team who dominated without efficiently converting. The eight saves by Mpasi is a tournament high for a single match — without his performance, Colombia could comfortably have won by three or four. Luis Díaz, Colombia's most creative presence, saw two goals disallowed — once for a foul in the build-up and once for offside — adding to the sense that the scoreline flattered DR Congo significantly. It was the most one-sided 1-0 win of the group stage so far, according to shot and possession data.

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