Croatia vs Panama: Result, Stats & Predictions (World Cup 2026)

Result

Croatia beat Panama 1-0 at BMO Field in Toronto on June 23, getting off the mark in Group L thanks to substitute Ante Budimir, who converted a curling cross from Josip Stanisic in the 54th minute. It was a match of careful organisation from both sides, with Croatia eventually finding the gap they needed through a patient approach. Panama, eliminated with this defeat, could not find the cutting edge to threaten a Croatian backline that gave little away. Croatia's first win of the tournament moves them to three points, keeping their knockout stage hopes alive going into matchday three.

What It Means for Last Man Standing Pools

Croatia were the expected pick in Group L on matchday two — less flashy than Portugal or England on the same day, but considered reliable enough to keep LMS backers safe. The game delivered, though not comfortably enough to give anyone an easy 90 minutes. The goal came from a substitute — a useful reminder that LMS pools reward outcome, not performance quality. Croatia surviving the group stage now becomes a relevant question: they need a result on matchday three, which makes them a riskier LMS pick going forward than their reputation suggests. Pool players should weigh that before backing them again in the knockouts.

Pre-Match Forecasts

Pre-match models had Croatia as moderate favourites at around 60-65% win probability, with Panama at 15% and the draw at 22-25%. Croatia's experience at tournament football — three World Cups in the last decade — was a key factor in the forecasts, but they were not considered a banker. The 1-0 outcome was the modal prediction: a narrow Croatia win in a tight match. Panama, without a World Cup point in either of their tournament appearances to date, were considered capable of making it difficult but unlikely to cause an upset.

Standout Stats

Luka Modric became only the fourth man in the history of men's international football to earn 200 caps, joining Cristiano Ronaldo (230), Kuwait's Bader Al-Mutawa (202), and Lionel Messi (201), per FIFA records. The 40-year-old captain played the full 90 minutes, and his reading of the game remained exceptional even as his legs have slowed. Budimir, who scored the winner, had been on the pitch for less than four minutes when the cross arrived — one of the faster substitute impacts of this tournament. Panama, despite their elimination, ended the match having defended for long stretches: Croatia's xG was 1.2 to Panama's 0.3, according to tournament tracking data, meaning Panama restricted Croatia to fewer clear chances than their pressure suggested. It was not enough.

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