Egypt vs Iran: Result, Stats & Predictions (World Cup 2026)

Result

Egypt and Iran shared the points in a dramatic 1-1 draw at Seattle Stadium. Mahmoud Saber gave Egypt the lead in the fifth minute, guided in with Trezeguet providing the assist, before Ramin Rezaeian fired Iran level in the 14th minute from a tight angle. The match looked settled — until Shoja Khalilzadeh bundled home in the 93rd minute, only for VAR to rule it out for offside. Ezatolahi then rattled the crossbar in the final seconds. Breathless.

What It Means for Last Man Standing Pools

Egypt were a genuinely difficult pick here — they started sharply and looked capable of holding on before the late chaos. Anyone who had backed them would have sweated through the final minutes in real discomfort. Iran, meanwhile, were the side who felt they deserved more, making this one of the group stage's most stressful finishes for LMS players on either side. Belgium's 5-1 win against New Zealand in the same matchday means both teams now await confirmation of whether they progress.

Pre-Match Predictions

Most forecasters considered this one of the tighter group stage finishes, with Egypt and Iran fairly evenly matched. The implied probability of an Egypt win sat around 35%, with a draw at roughly 33% and an Iran victory at 32% — about as close to a coin-flip as the tournament produced in the group stage. The result landed in the middle, but given Iran's xG of 1.94 against Egypt's 0.81, most analysts would say the scoreline slightly flattered Egypt. Iran were the better side for long stretches and felt that most acutely at full-time.

Standout Stats

Iran recorded an expected goals (xG) total of 1.94, their highest ever in a FIFA World Cup match, per Opta Analyst — yet finished with only one goal to show for it. Egypt created just 0.81 xG across 15 shots, three on target. Ramin Rezaeian's equaliser was his third goal at World Cup level, moving him past Mehdi Taremi as Iran's all-time top scorer in the tournament, according to FIFA match records. Mo Salah made his fifth World Cup start — the first Egyptian player to reach that milestone — but was substituted at 57 minutes, his fewest in a World Cup match. Goalkeeper Mostafa Shobeir saved a penalty in the first half, only the second Egyptian keeper to do so at the World Cup, after Essam El Hadary.

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