England vs Croatia: Result, Stats & Predictions (World Cup 2026)

England 4–2 Croatia — World Cup 2026 Group L

Result

England opened their 2026 World Cup campaign with a 4–2 win over Croatia at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Harry Kane put England ahead from the penalty spot in the 12th minute, but Croatia levelled through Martin Baturina. Kane headed in a second from a Declan Rice corner, only for Petar Musa to equalise in first-half stoppage time. Jude Bellingham's solo effort early in the second half settled England's nerves, and Marcus Rashford sealed it from the bench in the 85th minute, assisted by Bukayo Saka.

What it means for Last Man Standing pools

England were the obvious favourite pick in Group L, and anyone who backed them early will be exhaling with relief — though this was far from comfortable. Croatia twice pulled level, which will have had pool players sweating. The result is ultimately good for England backers, but the performance showed Croatia have enough fight to be dangerous. Portugal and Ghana are also in a tight group, so England's path to the knockout stage still requires careful navigation — this was far from a lock.

Pre-match forecasts

Pre-match models had England as clear favourites. Opta's supercomputer gave England a 55.9% win probability, with Croatia at 20.8% and a draw at 23.3%. Dimers' model put England's win chance slightly higher at 57.9%. The consensus across forecasting sites pointed to an England win, but few expected the game to be so open. Croatia's ability to score twice — once from a set piece, once in injury time — will raise questions about England's defensive structure despite the winning scoreline.

Standout stats

Harry Kane's brace took him to 10 goals at World Cup tournaments, equalling Gary Lineker's record for the most by an England player in World Cup history, per tournament records. Kane is also only the second England player to score at three separate World Cups (2018, 2022, 2026), joining David Beckham — a remarkable landmark of consistency. According to Opta match data, England had twice led and twice been pegged back before the break, making this only the second time an England side has conceded twice in the first half of a World Cup group game and still won. Jude Bellingham's solo goal, clipped in off the post, was his second World Cup goal in as many tournaments, cementing his status as England's most decisive midfielder on the biggest stage.

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