France vs Paraguay: Result, Stats & Predictions (World Cup 2026)
Kylian Mbappe's 70th-minute penalty sent France past Paraguay 1-0, drawing him level with Lionel Messi's all-time World Cup goal record.
5 July 2026
Result
France beat Paraguay 1-0 in a physical, foul-heavy Round of 16 tie in Philadelphia. The only goal came in the 70th minute, when referee Ilgiz Tantashev pointed to the spot after a VAR review and Kylian Mbappe converted the penalty. It was France's narrowest win of the tournament after scoring three or more goals in each of their previous four matches. Les Bleus advance to face Morocco in the quarter-finals.
What it means for Last Man Standing pools
France remained the tournament's most obvious "safe" pick throughout the group stage and Round of 32, and that held up here — but only just. Anyone banking France as a banker survived, though the single-goal margin made for a nervier watch than their earlier routs. Paraguay, fresh off a shootout win over Germany, had picked up a following as a value underdog pick; that run ends here, taking their remaining backers out of contention.
Pre-match forecasts
Pre-match markets heavily favoured France, with forecasts putting them close to 80% to win in 90 minutes once the draw is accounted for, Paraguay near 6%, and a draw around 14%. That lopsided expectation reflected France's group-stage form, in which they had scored 13 goals in four games. The result technically matched the forecast — France won as expected — but the margin defied it: most forecasts had pencilled in a comfortable multi-goal win, not a single penalty settling things.
Standout stats
Mbappe's goal was his 19th in World Cup competition, drawing him level with Lionel Messi's all-time record, and his sixth of this tournament, tying him for the Golden Boot lead, according to match data reported by ESPN. It also extended his own record of 11 World Cup knockout-stage goals and made him the first player to score three or more goals in the knockout stages of three separate World Cups. France's run of scoring three-plus goals in five straight World Cup matches, stretching back to the 2022 final, ended here — their most cautious performance of the tournament, but still enough to advance.
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