Germany are out. Paraguay knocked them out on penalties — and it's the most brutal LMS elimination yet

Germany have been eliminated from the 2026 World Cup. Not in the final. Not in the semis. In the Round of 32, by Paraguay, on penalties, in what has to be one of the most satisfying upsets in tournament history if you didn't back them — and one of the most painful if you did.

Here's what happened, and what it means for your pool.

The match

Paraguay drew first blood. Julio Enciso put them ahead before half-time, and for long stretches it looked like Germany were heading for an embarrassing exit inside 90 minutes. Kai Havertz dragged them level with a clever finish off a Florian Wirtz cross, and Germany had just enough to force extra time.

Then it got worse. Jonathan Tah headed home in extra time, the stadium erupted, and the goal was immediately flagged for review. VAR ruled Waldemar Anton had impeded the Paraguay keeper. Goal disallowed. 1-1 going into penalties.

It's the first time in World Cup history Germany have lost a shootout. Of all the streaks to end at this tournament, nobody had that one on their bingo card.

Havertz, Tah, and Nick Woltemade all missed in the shootout. José Canale scored the winner for Paraguay. The Germans walked off.

What this means for LMS pools

Germany were one of the most heavily backed teams entering the knockout rounds. The combination of tournament pedigree, an organised defence, and a genuinely dangerous attack made them a comfortable pick — not exciting, but reliable. Exactly the kind of pick LMS players love.

They were the wrong kind of reliable, as it turns out.

If your pool had a Germany-heavy round, this is the match that cleared the board. Mass eliminations like this are what Last Man Standing is actually about. Everyone takes the obvious pick. One upset later, half the pool is out.

Paraguay, meanwhile, advance to face whoever comes through their next bracket matchup. Worth knowing. Not a team to dismiss.

What to take into the next round

The lesson from Germany and Paraguay isn't "stop picking favourites." The lesson is: favourites lose more often than people adjust for, especially in single-game knockout formats. When everyone in your pool has the same pick, you're not getting an edge — you're just hoping for the same outcome as everyone else.

Differentiation in LMS matters most in the knockout rounds. Look for matches where the favourite is genuinely heavy, but where there's a specific reason to think the underdog has a path. Paraguay had one. They defended deeply, won set pieces, and they had Enciso on the ball.

The bigger picture

Germany are the fourth high-profile exit from this World Cup already. The traditional European giants are struggling. If you're still alive in your pool, the bracket has opened up considerably. The teams left are a more mixed bag than usual, which makes picking harder — but also more interesting.

Don't panic. Just don't back obvious.

If you're running a Last Man Standing pool or a predictor game for the World Cup, Matchroom handles picks and results automatically — free at getmatchroom.app.