Morocco beat Netherlands on penalties. The Round of 32 is already breaking hearts — and LMS pools

Same night as Germany. Same outcome. Same format. Netherlands 1-1 Morocco after 90 minutes, Morocco winning 3-2 on penalties. If you backed the Dutch and called it safe, you're out.

This wasn't supposed to happen either. Then it did. Twice in one evening.

The match

Netherlands looked the better side for much of it. Cody Gakpo gave them the lead in the 72nd minute, and for about 20 minutes it seemed straightforward. Then Issa Diop headed home a Morocco equaliser in the 91st minute, forcing extra time, and the whole thing fell apart for the Dutch from there.

In the shootout, goalkeeper Yassine Bounou stopped two Netherlands efforts — Crysencio Summerville's, then a miss from Quinten Timber and Justin Kluivert. Ismael Saibari stepped up and put Morocco through.

Morocco now face Canada in the last 16. Netherlands go home.

Why this keeps happening

Three penalty shootouts in the Round of 32 already. Three times the team that looked more capable of winning inside 90 minutes didn't.

That's not bad luck. That's the format. In knockout football, a single good goalkeeper on the day, a single missed kick, a single bad bounce can end your tournament. Teams that are 70% likely to win over 90 minutes can still lose 40% of the time when it goes to a shootout.

LMS players who understand this pick accordingly. If two teams are reasonably close, the safer-seeming favourite isn't always the smarter pick — because the format compresses the gap and randomness does the rest.

What this means for Morocco

Morocco are now through to the last 16. This squad has been quietly impressive throughout the tournament. Bounou in goal is a difference-maker. The defensive structure is solid. They're not just here to make up numbers.

They're also being overlooked by a lot of LMS players, which makes them interesting. If you're still alive in your pool and looking for a pick that isn't the same as everyone else's, Morocco are worth watching closely.

The pattern of this World Cup

Paraguay knocked out Germany. Morocco knocked out Netherlands. The 2026 tournament is not being kind to the traditional European powers. Whether that's a meaningful trend or just a noisy first round of the knockout stage remains to be seen — but it's worth taking seriously rather than writing off as variance.

The bracket has opened up. The obvious picks are gone. What's left is genuinely uncertain, which is exactly the kind of environment where good LMS strategy makes the difference between surviving and joining the long list of people who backed Germany.

If you're running a Last Man Standing pool or a predictor game for the World Cup, Matchroom handles picks and results automatically — free at getmatchroom.app.