Netherlands vs Tunisia: Result, Stats & Predictions (World Cup 2026)

The Result

Netherlands defeated Tunisia 3-1 at Kansas City Stadium on June 25 to top Group F. Brian Brobbey headed the Dutch ahead in the seventh minute following a van Dijk assist from a free kick, with an early Tunisian own goal also registered. Hazem Mastouri pulled one back for Tunisia in the 54th minute, redirecting a corner kick into the net. The Dutch responded quickly, with a van Hecke header glancing off Anis Slimane and into the goal to seal the three points. Netherlands advance as group winners; Tunisia exit the tournament.

What It Means for Last Man Standing Pools

Netherlands as an LMS pick delivered comfortably, as expected. The Dutch rarely let things get complicated — even after Tunisia halved the deficit in the second half, the Dutch responded within minutes. What this result demonstrates about Netherlands for the knockout stage is their ability to absorb a setback and answer it quickly, which is exactly what LMS players want to see before committing a pick. At 15 matches unbeaten at World Cups, they are one of the most bankable teams remaining in the competition.

Pre-Match Predictions

Pre-match forecasts were emphatic. The Opta Supercomputer gave Netherlands an 83.0% win probability before kickoff; WhoScored listed them at 86%. Tunisia's chances were calculated at 5.2% — the kind of number that reflects a team who had lost both their previous group matches and were already eliminated. FanDuel listed Netherlands at -1100 on the money line. Those probabilities were not unreasonable: Netherlands had beaten Sweden 5-1 in their opening match and were in commanding form. The result was never really in doubt, though Tunisia's 54th-minute goal gave Tunisian fans a brief moment to enjoy.

Standout Stats

Brobbey's goal was his third of the tournament, making him the Netherlands' top scorer at World Cup 2026 and one of the competition's leading individual contributors through the group stage, per tournament records. His opener — a precise chip following van Dijk's cross — required genuine composure under pressure and underlined why the Ajax forward has been central to the Dutch attacking setup. Netherlands' run of 15 matches unbeaten at World Cups is one of the longest active streaks in the tournament, a record that spans several editions and generations of Dutch football. Tunisia's only goal was their third of the group stage — a side that created limited clear-cut opportunities across three matches and leaves the competition with an xG record that suggests their goal tally slightly flattered their attacking performance.

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