Paraguay vs Australia: Result, Stats & Predictions (World Cup 2026)

The Result

Paraguay and Australia played out a goalless draw at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium on June 25, their final Group D fixture. Australia had the better of it territorially — 12 shots to Paraguay's seven — but neither goalkeeper was seriously troubled. Both teams had effectively secured their Round of 32 places before kickoff, and the game played out accordingly. The final whistle confirmed both nations' progression without a goal being scored.

What It Means for Last Man Standing Pools

A 0-0 draw is the worst possible outcome for Last Man Standing. Anyone who backed Paraguay — and given their solid group-stage record, plenty would have — is eliminated. Anyone who backed Australia is out too. That is the particular cruelty of LMS: draws wipe out both sides of the argument simultaneously. When two already-qualified teams meet with nothing concrete to fight for, cautious football is the predictable result and pool players pay the price.

Pre-Match Predictions

Pre-match market pricing was unusually blunt about where this was heading. According to Kalshi consensus data, a draw was the single most likely outcome at 40%, ahead of Paraguay winning at 39% and Australia at just 24%. FanDuel listed the draw at +120 — shorter than either team to win outright. Forecasts that price a draw this heavily tend to reflect one thing: both sides have more to lose from chasing the match than from settling. When the expected value of attacking is lower than the cost of exposure, 0-0 is the rational output.

Standout Stats

Per FIFA match data, Australia registered 12 shots to Paraguay's seven, with five on target against just two for the Paraguayans. The Socceroos held 46% possession to Paraguay's 42%, dominating territory without converting it into genuine danger. Paraguay's defensive discipline was the story of their group stage — they conceded just once across all three matches, making them one of the stingiest defences in the tournament's opening phase. Australia, who had scored freely in their earlier victories, found that same organisation impossible to breach when Paraguay sat deep and absorbed pressure. Both squads now enter the Round of 32 fully fit, with energy preserved from a tightly controlled dead rubber.

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