World Cup 2026 LMS Picks: July 3 — Argentina, Australia or Colombia?

Three more Round of 32 matches on Friday. Three more opportunities to stay alive — or get knocked out on a result you will still be explaining at Christmas. Here is what you need to know before making your pick.

The Three Matches

Australia vs Egypt — AT&T Stadium, Dallas, 2pm ET
Argentina vs Cape Verde — Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, 6pm ET
Colombia vs Ghana — Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, 9:30pm ET

Argentina vs Cape Verde — The Obvious Pick

Let us not overcomplicate this. Argentina are the defending World Cup champions. Lionel Messi has eighteen World Cup goals across six tournaments. Cape Verde are a fine African side who qualified admirably from a tough group and have every right to be here, but they are not beating Argentina.

In Last Man Standing terms, Argentina is the pick of the day. If you have not used them yet, this is the time. The risk in saving them is that the quarterfinals bring Brazil or France, and you may end up needing Argentina later. Against Cape Verde, however, the expected margin of victory is large enough that the strategic calculation is simple: use them now.

The only reason not to pick Argentina today is if you are deliberately managing your ammunition for the later rounds. But "later rounds" assumes you survive today, which assumes your pick wins. Argentina vs Cape Verde is about as close to a guaranteed win as knockout football gets.

Australia vs Egypt — Solid but Unspectacular

Australia reached the Round of 32 as Group D runners-up, finishing behind the United States. Egypt advanced from Group G. Neither side has been particularly convincing, but Australia have the better defensive structure and a settled midfield.

This is a reasonable pick if you have already used some of the more attractive sides and need to stay alive without burning a big name. The risk is a tight, scrappy contest that goes either way. Egypt are not without attacking threat. If you are picking Australia here, you need the game to be decided in 90 minutes — neither side is particularly convincing in extra time.

Colombia vs Ghana — The One to Avoid

Colombia won Group K comfortably. Ghana finished second in Group L. On paper, Colombia are the favourites. James Rodríguez has been in decent form. Ghana, however, are organised, physical, and entirely capable of an upset.

The pools player who picks Colombia here when Argentina is also available is making an unnecessary gamble. Unless you have already used Colombia or your pool structure means you need to spread picks across games, there is no logical reason to take Colombia over Argentina today.

The LMS Strategy in One Sentence

Pick Argentina. Save Colombia and Australia for rounds where the alternatives are worse.

A Word on Thursday's Results

Before you pick Friday, note what happened on Thursday evening: three European sides came through, but Portugal needed a 94th-minute Ramos header to beat Croatia, and Switzerland's 2-0 win over Algeria ended a remarkable 88-year wait for a World Cup knockout win. The "obvious" picks are not always comfortable. Spain's 3-0 over Austria was the exception, not the rule.

Stay calm, pick the percentage choice, and let Matchroom track who is still alive.

If you're running a Last Man Standing pool or a predictor game for the World Cup, Matchroom handles picks and results automatically — free at getmatchroom.app.