World Cup 2026 Round of 32: LMS Picks for June 30

Four more matches. Four more decisions. Yesterday's Round of 32 results came in largely as expected — Brazil, Germany, and the Netherlands all won — but the margins were tighter than the scorelines suggested. Today the tournament serves up a heavier card.

France, Spain, Argentina, and Portugal all play today. For most LMS pools, these are four of the five teams people have been protecting all tournament. The question is not whether to back them. The question is which of them to burn now, and which to hold for the Round of 16.

France vs Uruguay (1pm ET, Dallas)

Pick: France

Uruguay are dangerous in a specific way that this match will expose quickly. They sit deep, defend in two compact banks of four, and wait for the first mistake. Díaz and Núñez up front can punish a lapse in transition. They have beaten teams who underestimated them before.

France, however, are not a team that gets caught underestimating opponents. Deschamps has built a culture of tournament professionalism over the last decade. France in the round of 32 do not take their foot off the pedal. They win and they do not do it recklessly.

The LMS angle: France are probably the most valuable pick in the tournament right now. Use them today only if you genuinely do not have a safer spend. If you have already used three or four of the elite sides and France is your last premium option, holding them back for the Round of 16 — where they will likely face a tougher opponent — is the right call. There will be a cleaner pick available today.

Spain vs Norway (4:30pm ET, San Francisco)

Pick: Spain

Norway's run to the Round of 32 was built on an excellent group stage showing — Haaland scored four times, they topped their group, they have momentum. Against most sides, that form and that striker makes them a serious threat.

Against Spain, the problem is the ball. Spain will have it. Norway will spend long stretches defending, which limits Haaland's influence. It is very hard to back Norway to cause an upset here unless Spain are genuinely distracted or short of key players, and there is no suggestion of either.

The LMS angle: Spain are a very good Round of 32 pick because they are underestimated in LMS pools. People back Brazil, France, Argentina. Spain are quiet favourites who do not generate enthusiasm but they get results. If your pool still has plenty of strong teams available, Spain is an efficient use of a pick today — not your best one, but a solid one.

Argentina vs Morocco (8pm ET, Los Angeles)

Pick: Argentina — cautiously

Morocco have earned every game they have won at this tournament. They are not here by accident. They are physically strong, well-organised defensively, and they match up well against technically dominant sides because they are comfortable being compact and hitting on the counter. They have done this against better opposition than Argentina expected to face today.

Argentina are the better side, and Messi's influence in knockout football at this stage of his career remains significant. But this is not a clean pick. This is a match where, at 0-0 in the 75th minute with Morocco well-organised and the crowd uncertain, anything could happen.

The LMS angle: This is the riskiest pick on today's card. If you have an alternative, consider using it. Argentina at roughly 70% win probability in a knockout match is not the same as Argentina at 90% in a group stage game. Back them only if your pool options are limited or you have run the maths on what you can save for later.

Portugal vs Belgium (11pm ET, Miami)

Pick: Portugal

Belgium's squad has thinned since their golden generation. De Bruyne and the defensive structure remain solid, but Belgium have been inconsistent at this tournament, and their route here involved a nervy final group game. Portugal, by contrast, have been convincing — Ronaldo with five goal involvements across the group stage.

This is the clearest pick of the night. Portugal against this version of Belgium is as close to a routine knockout pick as the Round of 32 offers.

The LMS angle: If you have Portugal available and you need a pick today, this is the one. It is more reliable than Argentina vs Morocco and probably as reliable as France vs Uruguay. Use Portugal here, free up the slot, and save France or Argentina for the Round of 16.

Yesterday's results

Brazil 2-1 Japan — Vinícius Jr with both. Japan hit the post twice. Less comfortable than the scoreline suggests.
Germany 3-0 Paraguay — Not close. Müller with the opener and two assists.
Netherlands 1-0 Morocco — Van Dijk header, clean sheet, unconvincing in possession for long stretches.
Canada 1-0 South Africa — Eustáquio in the 92nd.

Today's summary

Best pick: Portugal vs Belgium. Cleanest match, highest probability, fewest doubts.

Riskiest pick: Argentina vs Morocco. Real upset potential — use with care.

If you're running a Last Man Standing pool or a predictor game for the World Cup, Matchroom handles picks and results automatically — free at getmatchroom.app.