Senegal vs Iraq: Result, Stats & Predictions (World Cup 2026)

Result

Senegal dismantled Iraq 5-0 in Toronto in a match that turned decisively inside the opening 15 minutes. Iraq received a red card early on and conceded from the fourth minute, when Habib Diarra got the final touch on a goalbound header to open the scoring. The game was effectively over at half-time. Ismaila Sarr added a second in the 56th minute, substitute Pape Gueye scored twice within minutes of coming on, and Iliman Ndiaye completed the rout eight minutes from time. Senegal advance from Group I; Iraq are eliminated.

What It Means for Last Man Standing Pools

Senegal were a credible pick here but also a slightly nervous one — Group I had already shown its unpredictable side, and Iraq, while outclassed on paper, had the motivation of a final game with nothing to lose. The red card changed everything within the opening exchanges, turning a competitive fixture into a comfortable one. Players who backed Senegal had it easy by the break. The big LMS implication coming out of this result is that Senegal are through to the knockout rounds with genuine momentum — a five-goal win is a statement, regardless of the circumstances.

Pre-Match Predictions

Senegal were clear pre-match favourites, with most forecasters putting their win probability at around 65-70%, a draw at approximately 18%, and an Iraq win at 12-15%, per market aggregators. Iraq had shown limited attacking threat across two previous group games and were already eliminated, which reduced their incentive while increasing the risk of a disjointed performance. The actual result exceeded even optimistic Senegal expectations. Iraq's red card and early goal changed the dynamic entirely, but Senegal's subsequent performance — 28 shots, five goals, xG of 3.03 — showed the quality they were always capable of producing.

Standout Stats

Senegal became the first African nation to score five goals in a single FIFA World Cup match, per FIFA records — the largest margin of victory ever recorded by an African team at the tournament. Their 28 shots against Iraq's six produced an xG of 3.03 to Iraq's 0.18, per Opta Analyst data. Substitute Pape Gueye scored with what was effectively his first touch of the game and went on to add a second, with his second goal clocked at a top ball speed of 132 kilometres per hour. Iraq became only the second team in World Cup history to concede a goal and receive a red card in the opening 15 minutes of a match, after Colombia against Japan at the 2018 tournament, per FIFA match records. Senegal's Ismaila Sarr took his international goal tally to 11, moving into the top five all-time scorers for the Lions of Teranga.

If you're running a Last Man Standing pool for the World Cup, Matchroom handles the picks and results automatically — free at getmatchroom.app.