South Africa vs South Korea: Result, Stats & Predictions (World Cup 2026)

Result

South Africa 1–0 South Korea, Estadio Monterrey, Group A Matchday 3. Thapelo Maseko scored the only goal in the 63rd minute, meeting a precise low cross from Tshepang Moremi to finish calmly at the near post. South Korea goalkeeper Seung-Gyu Kim had kept it scoreless before the hour with a double save, but he couldn't stop the eventual winner. The result eliminates South Korea from the tournament and sends South Africa into the Round of 32 — where they will face Canada — for the first time in their history.

What it means for Last Man Standing pools

South Korea were one of the safer-seeming Matchday 3 picks in Group A — they only needed a draw to progress. Anyone who backed them here is out. This is exactly the kind of result that defines LMS: a team that appeared to have qualification within reach, with a squad good enough to manage the game, and they still lost. South Africa, backed by almost nobody in LMS pools given their tournament form, caused the damage. If you avoided South Korea and survived, you've just navigated one of the bigger group-stage traps.

Pre-match forecasts

Pre-match probability models gave South Korea a clear edge. The Dimers model had South Korea winning 58.3% of simulations, with a draw at 24.2% and South Africa winning just 17.5% of the time. Alternative forecasts were similar — South Korea were around -149 to -170 favourites with most aggregators, reflecting their need only to avoid defeat. South Africa were priced as meaningful underdogs, with win probability between 17% and 28% depending on the model. The result was a genuine upset by any standard pre-match measure.

Standout stats

South Africa's victory was built on efficiency rather than control — they held just 30% possession for much of the match, yet created more meaningful chances in the second half. According to tournament records, Thapelo Maseko registered five shots in this game alone, taking his total to eight across the group stage and making him South Africa's most active attacker of the tournament. The historical weight of the result is significant: Bafana Bafana failed to advance from the group stage in 1998, 2002, and at home in 2010. This is their fourth World Cup appearance and their first knockout qualification. Per FIFA records, no African team had reached the knockouts as a group runner-up at this tournament until now.

If you're running a Last Man Standing pool for the World Cup, Matchroom handles the picks and results automatically — free at getmatchroom.app.