Spain vs Uruguay: Result, Stats & Predictions (World Cup 2026)

Result

Spain edged Uruguay 1-0 at Guadalajara to finish top of Group H. The decisive moment came in the 42nd minute: Álex Baena drove a powerful effort from the edge of the area, and veteran goalkeeper Fernando Muslera, under no particular pressure, fumbled it through his hands and into the net. Uruguay pressed for an equaliser but could not find a way through. Spain finish the group stage with seven points. Uruguay, in their second consecutive group exit, are eliminated. Cape Verde advanced as runners-up after drawing 0-0 with Saudi Arabia in the day's other Group H match.

What It Means for Last Man Standing Pools

Spain were one of the strongest LMS picks of the entire group stage, and this is why — they are disciplined, hard to break down, and they find a way to win even when not at their best. The Muslera error was the difference on the day, but Spain were the better side and deserved the win on balance. If you saved Spain for this match, that was well-timed. They now face a favourable draw in the knockouts as group winners. Uruguay's elimination marks the end of an era for Marcelo Bielsa's side, who generated chances but never converted when it mattered.

Pre-Match Predictions

Spain were clear pre-match favourites. Market-implied win probability put Spain at approximately 65-68%, with a draw around 20% and a Uruguay win at 13-15%, per odds aggregators. That margin reflects Spain's consistent form — their 70% possession average and plus-40 shot differential across two group games were both the best of any team at this tournament entering Matchday 3, per tournament tracking data. Uruguay had 66% possession and 44 shots in their first two matches, but only two points. The numbers suggested Spain were the class of the group; the result confirmed it.

Standout Stats

Spain have now kept three clean sheets in their last four World Cup matches, per FIFA tournament records — a significant run for a side that will go into the knockouts as one of the most defensively organised teams remaining. Álex Baena's winner was his second goal of the tournament, making him Spain's joint top scorer alongside Pedri. Uruguay's Fernando Muslera, at 38 years old, was playing in his fourth World Cup — only the second Uruguayan goalkeeper to reach that milestone — and the error will define the match in the history books. Uruguay end the group stage having failed to score in their final two matches, despite creating chances in both, per ESPN match analysis.

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