Turkey vs Paraguay: Result, Stats & Predictions (World Cup 2026)
Paraguay beat Turkey 1-0 with the second-fastest goal in World Cup history, then survived the match with ten men to seal a stunning upset.
19 June 2026
Result
Türkiye 0–1 Paraguay. Matías Galarza scored after just 64 seconds — the second-fastest goal in FIFA World Cup history — and somehow that was enough. Paraguay then had Miguel Almirón sent off before half-time, playing the entire second half with ten men. Turkey created chance after chance but couldn't find the net despite an extraordinary statistical dominance. Paraguay held on for a result that will be talked about long after this tournament ends. Turkey are eliminated.
What it means for Last Man Standing pools
This is exactly the kind of result that ends pool runs. Turkey were the majority pick in this fixture — favoured by most models, with the bigger squad, more World Cup experience, and a full man advantage for 45 minutes. Anyone who backed Türkiye this round is out. Paraguay, against all logic, survive to the final group game with their fate still in their own hands. The lesson: in a tournament where upsets happen every week, saving your favourites is always worth considering.
Pre-match forecasts
Turkey entered as favourites. Pre-match forecasts had them at roughly 48–56% win probability, with Paraguay given around 25% and the draw at 20–25%. The Opta supercomputer gave Turkey the edge based on their dominant possession and shot volume in a 2–0 opening-day loss to Australia — a game where the scoreline arguably flattered Australia. Paraguay had been thumped 4–1 by the US in their opener. Almost nobody forecast this result; it is one of the most surprising group-stage outcomes of the 2026 World Cup.
Standout stats
Matías Galarza's goal after 64 seconds is the second-fastest in FIFA World Cup history, behind only Hakan Şükür's 11-second strike for Turkey against South Korea in 2002 — remarkable timing given the opponent. Turkey's performance, however, was statistically extraordinary in defeat: 32 attempts, five on target, and an xG of 2.10, per match data — meaning they created the expected volume of goals roughly twice over and scored none. Abdülkerim Bardakçı completed all 98 of his passes, the highest-volume 100% passing accuracy by any player in a World Cup match since records began in 1966. Turkey controlled 78% of possession. Paraguay had 22%. None of it mattered.
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